DialIdol grades its own accuracy because many people ask how accurate DialIdol is and I want to answer the question honestly and intelligently. I've tried to come up with a grading system that is fair to what DialIdol is trying to do and this is what I have come up with.
DialIdol is graded based on these questions.
- For each contestant that was voted off - did DialIdol predict them to be SAFE?
- Did DialIdol absolutely predict that someone would be voted off that didn't get voted off?
- Absolutely predicting someone will be voted off means their name and bar graph shows up in red.
- This does not happen frequently.
- Did DialIdol absolutely predict someone would not be in the bottom three that was absolutely in the bottom three?
Any time an answer to either question is YES - DialIdol got it wrong, anytime the answer is NO - DialIdol got it right. These questions don't usually apply to every contestant per week - instead they usually only apply to a few contestants.
DialIdol does not grade itself by asking For each contestant who was safe, did DialIdol predict them to be safe? because this would result in a disproportionately high grade.
An example... During the week with 24 contestants left on American Idol Season Six, four contestants were voted off (Nicole, Amy, Rudy and Paul). DialIdol did NOT predict that any of them would be SAFE - so all four of those predictions were correct. That same week DialIdol made a definitive prediction that Alaina Alexander would be voted off however she was NOT voted off so this prediction was incorrect. In total this week DialIdol got 4/5 right - or 80%.
I've considered including many other factors in the grading system however they would either lead to unfairly high scores that anyone with a dart board could achieve, were unfairly critical of DialIdol or barely ever produced enough data to be graded on.
This is DialIdols grading system - you may judge DialIdols accuracy however you want. While doing so - please consider that these predictions are based on statistical data. Under these circumstances it is generally customary to allow some margin of error. In fact there are actual mathematical calculations that mathematicians have come up with to calculate margin of error and DialIdol uses those to calculate margin of error.